Lithium tus nqi kwv yees: Tus nqi puas yuav ua rau nws cov nyuj khiav?.
Cov roj teeb-qib lithium tus nqi tau yooj yim nyob rau lub asthiv dhau los txawm hais tias cov khoom tsis txaus thiab kev muag khoom hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb muaj zog.
Tus nqi txhua lub limtiam rau lithium hydroxide (yam tsawg kawg ntawm 56.5% LiOH2O roj teeb qib) nruab nrab yog $ 75,000 ib tonne ($ 75 ib phaus) tus nqi, kev tuav pov hwm thiab kev thauj khoom (CIF) raws li 7 Lub Xya Hli, nqis los ntawm $ 81,500 rau 7 Tsib Hlis, raws li London Hlau Txauv (LME) thiab tus nqi tshaj tawm lub koom haum Fastmarkets.
Tus nqi lithium carbonate hauv Suav teb tau thim rov qab rau CNY475,500 / tonne ($ 70,905.61) thaum lub Rau Hli lig, los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv siab ntawm CNY500,000 hauv lub Peb Hlis, raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam Trading Economics.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov nqi ntawm lithium carbonate thiab lithium hydroxide - cov khoom siv rau kev tsim hluav taws xob tsheb (EV) roj teeb - tseem yog ob npaug ntawm tus nqi thaum Lub Ib Hlis.
Puas yog downtrend tsuas yog ib ntus blip?Hauv tsab xov xwm no peb tshuaj xyuas cov xov xwm kev lag luam tshiab thiab cov ntaub ntawv xav tau uas tsim cov lithium tus nqi kwv yees.
Lithium kev lag luam txheej txheem cej luam
Lithium tsis muaj kev lag luam yav tom ntej vim nws yog ib lub lag luam me me ntawm cov khoom lag luam.Txawm li cas los xij, derivatives ua lag luam qhov chaw CME Group muaj lithium hydroxide yav tom ntej, uas siv lithium hydroxide kev ntsuas tus nqi luam tawm los ntawm Fastmarkets.
Xyoo 2019, LME hauv kev koom tes nrog Fastmarkets tau tshaj tawm tus nqi siv raws li qhov ntsuas lub cev ua lag luam txhua lub lim tiam ntawm CIF Tuam Tshoj, Nyiv thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb.
Tuam Tshoj, Nyiv thiab Kaus Lim Kauslim yog peb lub lag luam loj tshaj plaws rau seaborne lithium.Tus nqi lithium nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws yog suav tias yog kev lag luam benchmark rau roj teeb qib lithium.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm, lithium cov nqi poob ntawm 2018 txog 2020 vim yog cov khoom siv glut li cov miners, xws li Pilbara Minerals thiab Altura Mining, nce ntau lawm.
Tus nqi ntawm lithium hydroxide poob rau $ 9 ib kg ntawm 30 Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2020, los ntawm $ 20.5 / kg ntawm 4 Lub Ib Hlis 2018. Lithium carbonate pauv ntawm $ 6.75 / kg ntawm 30 Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2020, nqis los ntawm $ 19.25 ntawm 4 Lub Ib Hlis 2018.
Cov nqi pib nce thaum ntxov 2021 vim yog EV kev loj hlob zoo vim tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tau rov qab los ntawm qhov cuam tshuam los ntawm Covid-19 kev sib kis.Tus nqi lithium carbonate tau nce cuaj npaug rau hnub tim los ntawm $ 6.75 / kg thaum ntxov Lub Ib Hlis 2021, thaum lub lithium hydroxide tau nce ntau dua xya npaug ntawm $ 9.
HauvNtiaj teb no EV Outlook 2022luam tawm nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis, International Energy Agency (IEA)
tshaj tawm kev muag khoom ntawm EVs ob npaug hauv 2021 los ntawm xyoo dhau los mus rau cov ntaub ntawv tshiab ntawm 6.6m units.Tag nrho cov tsheb hluav taws xob ntawm txoj kev thoob ntiaj teb tau mus txog 16.5m, tripled los ntawm tus nqi hauv 2018.
Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo no, 2 lab EV tsheb tau muag, nce 75% xyoo dhau los (YOY).
Txawm li cas los xij, lithium carbonate qhov chaw tus nqi hauv Asia-Pacific kev ua lag luam tau yooj yim nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob raws li kev tshwm sim tshiab ntawm Covid-19 hauv Suav teb, uas ua rau tsoomfwv txwv tsis pub kaw, cuam tshuam rau cov khoom siv raw khoom.
Raws li kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg thiab tus nqi txawj ntse, Chemanalyst, lithium carbonate tus nqi raug ntsuas ntawm $ 72,155 / tonne lossis $ 72.15 / kg hauv lub quarter thib ob xaus rau Lub Rau Hli 2022, nqis los ntawm $ 74,750 / tonne hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg tau xaus rau lub Peb Hlis.
Lub tuam txhab sau:
Ob peb lub tsheb hluav taws xob txo qis lawv cov khoom tsim tawm, thiab ntau qhov chaw nres lawv cov khoom vim tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv tsheb tseem ceeb.
"Txoj kev loj hlob tag nrho vim yog COVID, ua ke nrog Suav cov tub ceev xwm kev soj ntsuam txog kev nce nqi ntawm Lithium, cuam tshuam kev hloov pauv mus rau kev lag luam ntsuab,"
Tus nqi lithium hydroxide hauv Asia-Pacific, txawm li cas los xij, tau nce $ 73,190 / tonne hauv lub quarter thib ob, los ntawm $ 68,900 / tonne hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, Chemanalyst hais.
Supply-demand outlook qhia kev lag luam nruj
Thaum Lub Peb Hlis, tsoomfwv Australia tau kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb kev thov rau lithium tuaj yeem nce mus rau 636,000 tonnes ntawm lithium carbonate sib npaug (LCE) hauv xyoo 2022, los ntawm 526,000 tonnes hauv 2021. Kev thov xav tau ntau dua ob npaug rau 1.5 lab tonnes los ntawm 2027 thoob ntiaj teb kev saws. txuas ntxiv mus.
Nws kwv yees lithium tso tawm thoob ntiaj teb kom nce me ntsis siab dua qhov xav tau mus rau 650,000 tonnes LCE hauv 2022 thiab 1.47 lab tonnes hauv 2027.
Qhov nce ntawm lithium tso zis, txawm li cas los xij, yuav tsis tuaj yeem ua raws li qhov xav tau los ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom roj teeb.
Lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb Wood Mackenzie tau kwv yees nyob rau lub Peb Hlis tias lub ntiaj teb cov roj teeb lithium-ion tuaj yeem nce ntau dua tsib npaug rau 5,500 gigawatt-teev (GWh) los ntawm 2030 los ntawm 2021 los teb rau EV cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav loj.
Jiayue ZhengWood Mackenzie cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, tau hais tias:
"Lub tsheb fais fab (EV) kev lag luam suav txog yuav luag 80% ntawm lithium-ion roj teeb xav tau."
"Cov nqi roj siab tau txhawb nqa ntau lub lag luam los nthuav tawm xoom-emission txoj cai thauj mus los, ua rau kev thov rau lithium-ion roj teeb rau skyrocket thiab tshaj 3,000 GWh los ntawm 2030."
"Lub lag luam roj teeb lithium-ion twb tau ntsib kev tsis txaus xyoo tas los vim kev vam meej EV kev lag luam xav tau thiab nce nqi raw khoom.Raws li peb qhov xwm txheej, peb npaj siab tias cov roj teeb yuav tsis ua raws li qhov xav tau kom txog rau thaum 2023. "
"Lub lag luam roj teeb lithium-ion twb tau ntsib kev tsis txaus xyoo tas los vim kev vam meej EV kev lag luam xav tau thiab nce nqi raw khoom.Raws li peb qhov xwm txheej, peb npaj siab tias cov roj teeb yuav tsis ua raws li qhov xav tau kom txog rau thaum 2023. "
"Peb ntseeg hais tias qhov kev tsom mus rau lithium feem ntau yog vim lithium mining sector tau underdeveloped piv nrog npib tsib xee," lub tuam txhab sau nyob rau hauv kev tshawb fawb.
"Peb kwv yees tias EVs yuav ua lub luag haujlwm rau ntau dua 80.0% ntawm lub ntiaj teb lithium xav tau los ntawm 2030 piv nrog tsuas yog 19.3% ntawm cov khoom siv nickel thoob ntiaj teb hauv 2030."
Lithium tus nqi kwv yees: Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kev kwv yees
Fitch Solutions hauv nws lithium tus nqi kwv yees rau xyoo 2022 kwv yees lithium carbonate tus nqi roj teeb hauv Suav teb rau qhov nruab nrab $ 21,000 ib tonne xyoo no, easing mus rau qhov nruab nrab $ 19,000 ib tonne hauv 2023.
Nicholas Trickett, hlau thiab mining analyst ntawm Fitch Solutions sau rau Capital.com, hais tias:
"Peb tseem cia siab tias yuav muaj kev txo nqi ntawm cov nqi sib txawv rau xyoo tom ntej raws li cov mines tshiab pib tsim xyoo 2022 thiab 2023, cov nqi siab ua kom puas tsuaj qee qhov kev thov vim cov neeg siv khoom raug nqi tawm ntawm kev yuav tsheb fais fab (tus tsav tsheb loj ntawm kev xav tau kev loj hlob), thiab ntau tus neeg siv khoom. kaw cov ntawv cog lus mus sij hawm ntev nrog cov miners. "
Lub tuam txhab tau nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm kev hloov kho lithium tus nqi kwv yees muab cov nqi siab tam sim no thiab kev hloov pauv hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev lag luam, Trickett tau hais.
Fitch Solutions kwv yees thoob ntiaj teb lithium carbonate cov khoom yuav nce los ntawm 219kilotonnes (kt) ntawm 2022 thiab 2023 thiab lwm qhov nce ntawm 194.4 kt ntawm 2023 thiab 2024, Trickett tau hais.
Hauv kev kwv yees tus nqi lithium rau 2022 los ntawm kev lag luam cov ntaub ntawv Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam xav tias lithium carbonate hauv Suav teb yuav pauv ntawm CNY482,204.55 / tonne los ntawm qhov kawg Q3 2022 thiab CNY502,888.80 hauv 12 lub hlis.
Vim yog qhov tsis sib xws thiab tsis paub meej ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tsuas tuaj yeem muab kev kwv yees luv luv.Lawv tsis tau muab lithium tus nqi kwv yees rau 2025 lossis lithium tus nqi kwv yees rau 2030.
Thaum saib rau hauvlithiumkev kwv yees tus nqi, dais hauv siab tias cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kev kwv yees tuaj yeem ua tau thiab tsis raug.Yog tias koj xav nqis peev hauv lithium, koj yuav tsum ua koj tus kheej tshawb fawb ua ntej.
Koj qhov kev txiav txim siab peev yuav tsum yog nyob ntawm koj tus cwj pwm rau kev pheej hmoo, koj qhov kev txawj ntse hauv kev ua lag luam no, kev sib kis ntawm koj cov ntaub ntawv thiab koj xav li cas txog kev poob nyiaj.Thiab tsis txhob nqis peev ntau dua li koj tuaj yeem them taus poob.
Post lub sij hawm: Sep-17-2022